Lagos' Ride-Hailing Reckoning: Soaring Fuel Costs Upend Commuter Habits

Every morning in Lagos, Nigeria, Blessing Ade faces a new calculus. Baby wrapped securely, she waits indoors. She won't step out until her ride-hail car is literally at her gate. Public buses? "Right now, I'm not thinking bus. I don't even see it as an option. I've canceled it," she told DW, her stance firm.

Ade’s daily ritual highlights a city in flux. Lagos, a sprawling metropolis of 20 million, finds its transportation ecosystem under unprecedented strain. The culprit? Rocketing fuel prices. This isn't just an inconvenience; it's a profound shift in how millions move.

The catalyst was swift and brutal: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s May 2023 inauguration speech, which abruptly ended Nigeria's long-standing petrol subsidy. The immediate fallout? Fuel costs skyrocketed. That jolt reverberated, hitting everything from food prices to the overall cost of living. Transportation, of course, bore the brunt.

For some, like 29-year-old development professional Pemi Aderogba, ride-hailing remains indispensable. She uses it almost daily. "If I have to go out seven days a week, I would probably use them for six days or even all seven days," Aderogba confided. She juggles apps like Uber and inDrive, ditching platforms that become too expensive. Comfort, for her, is paramount. "It's just always about the distance and comfort for me," she said. "I always want to be comfortable."

The Shifting Sands of Convenience

But not everyone shares Aderogba's steadfast reliance. For 35-year-old media practitioner Saanu Olomoda, the golden age of ride-hailing is over.

"If it were 2 or 3 years ago, I would say yes. Ride-hailing apps played a huge role in my daily life. But now they play a smaller role... I hardly use them these days."

When fares surge, Olomoda simply closes the app. Her fallback? The iconic yellow danfo minibus. "I close the app and go get the yellow bus." It’s an embrace of the city's informal, often chaotic, yet deeply ingrained public transport. Even then, cancellations plague her plans. Early morning trips are a gamble, drivers often vanishing.

Researcher Daniel Björkegren, who has studied Lagos’ transport, isn't surprised. The danfo network is extensive, he noted; it’s the natural fallback.

Ozioma Okafor, another Lagos resident, embodies a hybrid strategy. He mixes ride-hailing with public transport, a decision hinging on destination, distance, and, crucially, his wallet. He still uses apps, but "only once in a while now."

Drivers on the Edge

The pressure isn't exclusive to riders. Drivers feel it acutely. Enahoro Mudi, a full-time driver, laments the good old days. "Two to three years ago, driving experience was far better." Now, he shells out 20,000 Naira ($14) for fuel only to barely break even after deductions. Peak demand, he says, is a narrow window: 5 to 7 a.m. and weekends. "Normal days are not worth it."

Seun Ola, another driver, observes a common pattern: during rush hour surges, riders jump ship. "Most riders will switch to another app because they cannot cope with such prices." Or, he notes, they cut out the middleman entirely, negotiating fares directly with drivers, outside the app’s purview.

For some, though, the equation remains unchanged. Blessing Ade, with a baby at home, prioritizes time. No matter the cost, getting back to her child on schedule often tips the scales in favor of a booked ride. A stark reminder that in Lagos' ever-evolving transport drama, convenience, for many, still holds a powerful, if expensive, sway.